Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
DL 2852 · TPA → DTW
departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 1:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 12%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 11%
Tue 11/17 10%
Wed 11/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.