FJ 871 · SFO → NAN

departs 10:05 PM PT · arrives 5:14 AM +12

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at NAN more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NAN?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
45%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ FAA ground stop at SFO (flights into it held until 11:59pm): delays there spread to departures

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ FJ's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.30 in

NAN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FJ 871 · SFO → NAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to NAN?