Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
OO 4053 · AUS → MFE
departs 2:06 PM CT · arrives 3:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 11/15
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.81 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.