OO 5264 · RNO → SFO

departs 6:24 PM PT · arrives 7:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±14 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5264 · RNO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?