Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
OO 5863 · LAX → SBP
departs 8:54 PM PT · arrives 10:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Tue 11/17 21%
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 21%
Fri 11/20 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.