Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

QANTAS · FLIGHT QF 4 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, November 15 Today

QF 4 · JFK → AKL

departs 6:21 PM ET · arrives 5:06 AM NZDT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at AKL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AKL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QF 4 · JFK → AKL

Odds over time