Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

UA 1176 · HNL → SFO

departs 9:54 AM HT · arrives 5:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

↓ 9am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1176 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?