Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1436 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

UA 1436 · MSO → DEN

departs 2:37 PM MT · arrives 4:42 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO

Weather at each end

MSO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1436 · MSO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?