Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

UA 1526 · PUJ → EWR

departs 7:24 PM AST · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PUJ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1526 · PUJ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?