UA 1689 · LAX → FAT

departs 7:02 PM PT · arrives 8:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1689 · LAX → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?