Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1723 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

UA 1723 · SFO → KOA

departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 8:31 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.42 in

KOA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1723 · SFO → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?