UA 1784 · JAX → EWR

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 6:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +28 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1784 · JAX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?