Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2293 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

UA 2293 · IAH → JAX

departs 8:00 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±12 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.70 in

JAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2293 · IAH → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?