Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2446 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

UA 2446 · LGA → IAH

departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 8:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2446 · LGA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?