UA 2473 · DEN → TYS

departs 5:45 PM MT · arrives 10:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2473 · DEN → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?