UA 2799 · IND → SFO

departs 6:22 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±9 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
32%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2799 · IND → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?