UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

departs 8:22 PM PT · arrives 9:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
29%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?