Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3812 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Today

UA 3812 · MSY → CLE

departs 4:35 PM CT · arrives 8:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLE at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3812 · MSY → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?