UA 3904 · HNL → SFO

took off 6:46 AM HT · expected to land 1:13 PM PT (scheduled 6:25 AM HT → 1:59 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ 6am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3904 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?