Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

UA 470 · IAH → DEN

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.01 in

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 470 · IAH → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?