Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

UA 499 · SEA → SFO

departs 6:59 AM PT · arrives 9:14 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ 6am departures from SEA are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.21 in

SFO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 499 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?