UA 514 · DEN → SDF

departs 5:51 PM MT · arrives 10:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 514 · DEN → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?