Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1030
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1030 · TPA → BHM
departs 5:06 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 26%
Thu 11/19 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BHM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.