Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1227 · MEM → MCO
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 8:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 23%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.