Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1407 · PHX → OMA
departs 11:18 AM MT · arrives 3:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 26%
Tue 11/17 15%
Wed 11/18 19%
Thu 11/19 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.