Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 146 · LAX → OAK
departs 9:38 AM PT · arrives 11:03 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 21%
Thu 11/19 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.