Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

WN 1471 · DEN → RDU

departs 10:37 AM MT · arrives 4:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1471 · DEN → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?