Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1498 · DAL → STL
departs 7:33 PM CT · arrives 9:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 80%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 29%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.43 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.