WN 1506 · DAL → TUS

departs 7:40 PM CT · arrives 9:14 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±2 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.28 in

TUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1506 · DAL → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?