Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1522 · RNO → DEN
departs 2:47 PM PT · arrives 6:02 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 27%
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,567 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.