Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1577
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1577 · STS → LAS
departs 3:06 PM PT · arrives 4:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 31%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.67 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.