Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Today
WN 161 · AUS → BNA
departs 5:33 PM CT · arrives 7:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/16 34%
Thu 11/19 50%
Fri 11/20 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.44 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.