Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1709 · STS → DEN
departs 2:12 PM PT · arrives 5:47 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 75%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 28%
Thu 11/19 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.74 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 967 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.