Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1728
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1728 · ROC → BWI
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 21%
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 6.33333 mi Precip 0.04 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.