Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1730 · AUS → RNO
departs 11:02 AM CT · arrives 12:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 19%
Thu 11/19 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.10 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.