Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1747 · DEN → PHL
departs 11:15 AM MT · arrives 4:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 967 ft forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.