Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1807 · SRQ → MCO
departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 6:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 28%
Thu 11/19 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.