Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1862 · SJC → LAS
departs 2:56 PM PT · arrives 4:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 16%
Wed 11/18 24%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,767 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.30 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.