WN 186 · TPA → STL

departs 6:22 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 186 · TPA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?