Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1897
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1897 · SJC → SAN
departs 2:48 PM PT · arrives 4:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 40%
Tue 11/17 30%
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.33 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.