Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 189 · PHL → DEN
departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sat 11/14 39%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 38%
Thu 11/19 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.