Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 196 · DAL → SAT
departs 5:42 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 25%
Thu 11/19 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.45 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.91 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.