Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1972 · OAK → SAN
departs 2:56 PM PT · arrives 4:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 62%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 35%
Tue 11/17 38%
Wed 11/18 32%
Thu 11/19 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.48 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.