Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2012 · LAS → HOU
departs 5:09 PM PT · arrives 10:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 39%
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 32%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.