Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2012 · SBA → LAS
departs 3:11 PM PT · arrives 4:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Thu 11/19 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±7 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.