Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2018 · SJD → SMF
departs 3:41 PM MST · arrives 6:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 26%
Thu 11/19 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.