Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 202
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 202 · ROC → MDW
departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 8:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 93%
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 34%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,433 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip 0.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.