Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2040 · HNL → SAN
departs 8:10 AM HT · arrives 3:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 9%
Tue 11/17 8%
Wed 11/18 9%
Thu 11/19 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
8am departures from HNL are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.