Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 204 · AUS → AMA
departs 11:37 AM CT · arrives 1:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 14%
Thu 11/19 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at AMA that day
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.53 in
AMA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.