Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2126 · HOU → PHX
departs 11:44 AM CT · arrives 1:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 22%
Wed 11/18 31%
Thu 11/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.41 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.